Leap Day Agreement

If the Six-Party Talks resume, as seems more likely under this agreement, the United States and its Asian allies will work to disclose and completely dismantle enrichment facilities so that North Korea`s nuclear status can return to the status quo before 2008, when all denuclearization measures were suspended due to differences of opinion on verification measures. Let`s not be too enthusiastic: strict verification requirements could still wipe out the up-to-date switching agreement. And despite the suspension measures, it is highly unlikely that North Korea will completely give up its nuclear weapons. But after four years of rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, it`s worth celebrating a good day for diplomacy. What about North Korea and that country`s propensity to violate the agreements? HU: His son, Kim Jong Un, takes over. The Americans and North Koreans nevertheless made progress in the agreement and announced it on February 29, 2012, the day of switching. Third, this agreement shows that the new head of the Kim dynasty in Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un, and the regime inherited from his father and grandfather retain a certain coherence in their relations with the outside world. Wherever power is in North Korea, the same negotiators and similar dynamics defined this recent agreement between Washington and Pyongyang. Theoretically, young Kim could have interrupted conversations completely or attempted a more confrontational approach.

On February 29, 2012, the United States and North Korea announced a „switch day“ agreement under which the United States would provide substantial food aid, in exchange for the North`s approval of a moratorium on uranium enrichment and missile tests and the return of IAEA inspectors to Yongbyon, which would lead to the resumption of the six-party talks. [72] On March 16, 2012, North Korea announced the launch of a satellite commemorating the centenary of the late founder Kim il-Sung, who was condemned by the other five participants in the Six-Party Talks and raised doubts about the „switching day“ agreement. [73] On April 6, 2012, the North Korean satellite could not be put into orbit and was declared defective by the United States and South Korea. In addition, the launch was described as a provocative test of missile technology and the United States announced the suspension of food aid to North Korea. [74] Another political priority is the continued emphasis on „negative security assurances“ and a „durable peace regime“ as part of the denuclearization process (as stated in the Six-Party Talks agreements). North Korea`s emphasis on the need for a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War is met with cynicism and opposition in Seoul and Washington, but some sort of Korean peace process coupled with denuclearization steps will be difficult to avoid. Pyongyang`s concern for a peace regime is indirectly reflected in the Foreign Ministry`s reference to the 1953 ceasefire agreement „as a cornerstone of peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula,“ which is accompanied by the North Korean Foreign Ministry`s statement „until a peace treaty is concluded.“ Three important questions about satellite require answers. What was behind the announcement of the satellite launch? When and why did the DPRK decide to organize the launch? And why did the North Koreans think it wouldn`t undermine the February 29 deal? North Korea`s agreement to suspend nuclear and ballistic tests is also important.

Its two nuclear tests and three medium-range ballistic missile tests have all failed to some extent, so military leaders will likely want to do more to make the technology correct. Kim will have less power to oppose such military demands. Fortunately for him, his father authorized negotiations with the United States that began just before the death of elder Kim in late December. . . .